When forecasters initially predicted the 2023 hurricane season to be slightly below average in April, they highlighted the uncertainty resulting from conflicting meteorological factors. These factors were a strong El Niño, which could weaken hurricanes through a weakened jet stream, and an abnormally warm Atlantic Ocean that could fuel hurricanes. Three months later, the tug-of-war between these factors is starting to clear, leading Colorado State University’s renowned tropical weather and climate research team to revise their hurricane season outlook.
The updated outlook, released recently, now forecasts an “above-average” season with 18 named storms, nine of which will become hurricanes, and four reaching major hurricane strength. The primary reason for the increased prediction is the “extreme anomalous warmth” observed in the Atlantic Ocean. The sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are approximately 1 degree Celsius above normal, which might seem insignificant but has a significant impact in the tropics. This unusual warmth has led to the adjustment in the forecast, as the Atlantic is currently as warm in early July as it typically would be in early August, indicating that the hurricane season is running about a month ahead of schedule.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist from the university, expects sea surface temperatures to continue to warm over the coming months, but the rate of warming remains uncertain. Additionally, other factors contributing to the revised forecast include unusual atmospheric responses during an El Niño year, lower-than-expected wind shear in the Caribbean in June, and the early formation of two tropical storms, Bret and Cindy.
Meteorologists emphasize the unpredictability of forecasting, and despite the specific numbers, they advise the public to always be prepared for hurricanes during the season. It’s essential to remember that even one hurricane can make a season active and potentially devastating. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) prediction for a near-normal season aligns with the university’s latest forecast, which highlights the potential impact of climate change on storm intensity and precipitation.
This year’s unique combination of an El Niño and exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean makes it an unprecedented scenario. Balmy sea surface temperatures, coupled with an El Niño, have not been observed in recorded history. It presents a challenging situation for forecasters as they navigate uncharted territory in predicting the behavior of the 2023 hurricane season.
